“Above the clouds”?

SpaceX shares continue their rapid ascent, redrawing the usual boundaries of tech valuation and forming one of the most discussed case studies in global capital markets.

On June 15, 2026, the company’s stock closed at $192.5, representing a 42.6% increase compared to its IPO price. However, the move did not stop there: in pre-market trading, the shares firmly broke above $210, according to Yahoo Finance, extending the upward momentum.

SpaceX debuted on Nasdaq on June 13, 2026. The IPO price was set at $135 per share. Even at that stage, some analysts noted that the valuation looked relatively aggressive, given the company’s current financial metrics and its capital-intensive, long-term business structure.

The first trading day was volatile: the stock quickly surged above $176 but later closed closer to $161, effectively marking a phase of “initial revaluation” and profit-taking by early participants. After that, the market entered a period of price discovery and consolidation.

By June 15, shares had closed at $192.5. At the time of writing, pre-market trading showed further gains up to $215, bringing total IPO-to-current returns to approximately 59.3%. SpaceX stock price on Nasdaq. Source: Yahoo Finance

Against this backdrop, SpaceX’s market capitalization surpassed $2.5 trillion, automatically placing the company sixth among the world’s most valuable publicly traded companies, overtaking TSMC and securing its position in the upper tier of the global tech sector. Top 10 largest companies and assets by market capitalization. Source: Companies Market Cap

Such rapid growth has created a clear divide among experts. Bullish scenarios suggest that SpaceX could become one of the key infrastructure companies of the future, with a potential long-term valuation in the $10–30 trillion range. This view is shared, in particular, by Baron Capital founder Ron Baron, who sees the company as a foundational element of the future space and communications economy.

However, the opposing view is equally strong. Some analysts argue that the current valuation is overheated, pointing to the limited free float of shares and the high level of expectations already embedded in the price. In particular, Morningstar analysts estimate fair value at around $63 per share, significantly below current market levels. In their view, the rally is largely driven by supply scarcity, strong institutional support, and intense information-driven demand around the company.

Thus, SpaceX finds itself in a classic “historical optimism versus fundamental caution” scenario: the market is already pricing in a civilization-scale infrastructure company of the future, while analysts remind investors that even the most ambitious narratives ultimately revert to cash flows and real-world fundamentals.