From risk to hope: tankers pass — bets rise

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz is gradually shifting from a phase of acute uncertainty to a mode of cautious recovery — and the market is reacting faster than official statements. Following reports of the first eight oil tankers passing through this key artery of global oil trade, the probability that shipping will return to “normal conditions” by the end of April on Polymarket surged to 47%.

Just a day earlier, the market had been far more optimistic about a longer-term recovery scenario: the share of bets on normalization by early summer reached 82%. However, it has now adjusted to 78%, indicating an interesting shift in expectations. Market participants are beginning to price in a faster, yet less certain scenario: short-term improvement is already happening, but the sustainability of this trend remains in question.

The very fact that tankers are passing is not just a technical event but a signal of reduced operational risk. The Strait of Hormuz is a bottleneck through which up to 20% of global seaborne oil trade flows. Any disruption here is immediately reflected in prices, insurance premiums, and logistics. Therefore, even a partial restoration of traffic is seen as an important indicator: the market is starting to test the hypothesis that the worst-case scenario — a full blockade — is temporarily off the table.

At the same time, Polymarket’s betting behavior shows that confidence in a full return to previous conditions is still lacking. The drop in the probability of summer normalization from 82% to 78% is not panic, but rather a cautious reassessment. As usual, the market balances between hope and caution: improvement exists, but it may prove fragile.

Against this backdrop, the behavior of the crypto market is telling. Bitcoin pulled back below the $77,000 mark despite maintaining positive momentum — more than 2% over the past day and around 5.3% over the week. This is a typical reaction in an environment of easing geopolitical tension: part of the capital that previously flowed into “safe-haven” assets amid escalation risks begins to return to more traditional markets or is taken as profit.

At the same time, the fact that Bitcoin is holding its weekly gains points to deeper trend resilience. The market is not reversing — it is correcting. And that is an important distinction. If geopolitics were the sole driver of the rally, the reaction would be much sharper.

In the end, a fairly characteristic picture emerges. On one hand, there is cautious optimism in global markets tied to the recovery of a key transport artery. On the other, there is still no full confidence in the durability of this process.

Markets today are driven less by facts themselves and more by the speed at which they change. Yesterday — blockade risk, today — the first tankers, tomorrow — the question of whether this becomes a new normal or remains a brief episode. And it is precisely this uncertainty that continues to set the tone for both the oil market and cryptocurrencies.