Brief takeaways from the “fantastic” negotiations

Let’s try to carefully take off the rose-colored glasses: a “trillion-dollar deal” sounds impressive, but such figures in diplomacy more often serve as headlines rather than actual contracts. Nevertheless, the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping действительно became one of the most discussed events in recent weeks — and not only because of the bold wording.

Trump described the negotiations as “fantastic” and announced a potential trade deal with China that insiders estimate at around $1 trillion. In classic Trump fashion — go big from the start. But behind the громкие заявления stands a fairly concrete set of agreements that could affect multiple markets at once — from industry to cryptocurrencies.

The key element of the talks is a return to large-scale mutual purchases. According to preliminary agreements, China may buy up to 200 aircraft from Boeing. This would be the first deal of such scale between the parties in nearly a decade and a signal that even amid geopolitical competition, economic pragmatism still matters.

Another important point is agriculture. The sides agreed to expand purchases of U.S. agricultural products. For the United States, this is traditionally a sensitive sector that often becomes part of political compromises. For China, it is a matter of food security and supply diversification.

The technology angle is also particularly noteworthy. Washington is reportedly ready to allow shipments of Nvidia H200 chips to Chinese companies. Against the backdrop of previous restrictions, this looks like a partial easing of the stance. Moreover, an additional list of goods worth about $30 billion is being discussed for removal from export controls. If implemented, this would amount to a partial “thaw” in technology trade.

However, the talks went far beyond economics. A separate block focused on security. According to Trump, Beijing supports restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program and also backs maintaining free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. This is an important signal for global markets: the stability of this route directly affects oil supplies and, consequently, prices and inflation worldwide.

And this is where things get interesting. Markets react not so much to details as to the overall tone. Even a hint of de-escalation between the U.S. and China automatically reduces global uncertainty. And that is fuel for risk assets.

A good example is the crypto market. Bitcoin reacted sharply to the political and regulatory backdrop. Overnight, the price climbed to $82,000 following the approval of the Clarity Act by the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. However, it later pulled back below $81,000. The reason is quite straightforward: the initiative currently has only 55 of the 60 votes needed to end debate. This means final adoption could be delayed at least until August.

This is classic market behavior: first euphoria, then a reminder of reality. Laws are not passed through social media posts but through votes — and sometimes very slowly.

In the end, a multi-layered picture emerges. On the one hand, the U.S. and China are showing willingness for partial economic rapprochement. On the other hand, fundamental contradictions remain. Technology, security, influence — all of these continue to be areas of competition.

So the main conclusion is rather sober. What we are seeing is not a “reset” of relations but an attempt to temporarily reduce tensions where it benefits both sides. In global politics, this is called not friendship, but a balance of interests.

Translated from diplomatic language into plain terms: the sides agreed to cooperate exactly to the extent that it does not interfere with their competition. And for the markets, that alone is already enough to trigger occasional rallies.

A video excerpt of Trump’s speech can be viewed on our Telegram channel.