Who is our world’s first trillionaire?

Financial markets are increasingly considering a scenario that just a few years ago seemed like science fiction. According to data from the prediction platform Kalshi, the probability that Elon Musk will become the first person in history with a net worth above 1 trillion dollars has reached a record 97%. Moreover, market participants estimate a 90% probability that this will happen before 2027. Not long ago, the word “trillionaire” sounded like a science-fiction term. However today, investors are no longer debating “whether Musk will become a trillionaire,” but “when exactly it will happen.”

The foundation of Musk’s wealth remains his stake in Tesla. Even after numerous market fluctuations, the electric vehicle manufacturer remains one of the most valuable companies in the world. The value of Musk’s shares and options in Tesla is estimated at around 273 billion dollars. This alone is enough for him to firmly rank among the richest people on the planet.

However, the main driver of the potential trillion is not Tesla.

At the center of investor attention is SpaceX — a space company that over recent years has evolved from an ambitious startup into one of the leaders of the global space industry. SpaceX controls the commercial launch market, is actively developing the Starlink satellite network, and participates in the largest space programs of the modern era.

The possibility of a future IPO of SpaceX is being discussed more and more actively in the market. According to some investor and analyst estimates, the company’s valuation could reach 1.7–1.8 trillion dollars. If such a valuation materializes and Musk’s stake remains close to its current level, the value of his share package could exceed 800 billion dollars.

In that case, the entrepreneur’s total wealth, based only on Tesla and SpaceX, could exceed 1.1 trillion dollars.

It is important to understand that this is not about cash in bank accounts. Like most billionaires, Musk does not hold cash wealth but ownership stakes in companies. His wealth exists in the form of shares whose value is determined by the market. If investors are willing to pay high prices for Tesla and SpaceX stock, his net worth increases. If company valuations decline, his personal wealth also decreases.

Nevertheless, the very emergence of a potential trillionaire shows how much the global economy has changed over recent decades.

At the end of the 20th century, even the richest entrepreneurs in the world had fortunes measured in tens of billions of dollars. Today, the largest technology companies reach market capitalizations of several trillion dollars, and their founders are able to accumulate wealth on a scale that was previously impossible.

To understand the size of Musk’s projected wealth, it is enough to imagine a simple number. One trillion dollars is one thousand billion dollars or one million million dollars. If a person spent one million dollars every hour, nonstop day and night, it would take more than a hundred years to spend a trillion dollars. Even more striking is the comparison with countries. According to international economic organizations, only about two dozen countries in the world have annual GDP above 1 trillion dollars. This means that the potential wealth of one person could exceed the size of the economy of the vast majority of countries on the planet.

The Musk phenomenon is explained not only by the success of Tesla and SpaceX. Investors are effectively betting on several megatrends at once. Electric vehicles, autonomous transport, artificial intelligence, satellite internet, space technologies, and future missions to Mars – all these areas are associated with his companies.

In practice, markets are pricing not only current business revenues but also expectations about the future development of entire industries.

However, the path to a trillion is not guaranteed. The history of financial markets shows that even the largest companies can face crises, declining profits, increased competition, and changing investor sentiment. A huge part of Musk’s wealth depends on whether Tesla and SpaceX maintain their leading positions in the coming years.

Nevertheless, current forecasts speak for themselves. Markets are pricing the probability of the first trillionaire almost as an inevitability. And if this scenario materializes, Elon Musk may go down in history not only as the creator of the electric vehicle and space revolution, but also as the first person whose net worth surpassed the symbolic threshold of one trillion dollars.

Just a few years ago, this seemed impossible. Today, investors are only debating which year it will happen.