Bitcoin vs Gold: JPMorgan Price

💰 Analysts at the largest U.S. bank, JPMorgan, stated that the fair value of Bitcoin should be around $126,000 — roughly 13% above current levels. According to experts, this is the price needed for the first cryptocurrency to catch up to gold in investment portfolios.

Why the “fair price” is above the current one

JPMorgan noted that Bitcoin’s volatility has significantly decreased over the past year — from nearly 60% at the beginning of the year to around 30% now. This is a historic low, making the cryptocurrency less risky compared to the past and closer to gold.

“Yes, this is the outlook we highlighted in our note, and we expect it to materialize by the end of the year,” emphasized JPMorgan Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

For comparison: at the end of 2024, Bitcoin traded $36,000 above its “fair price.” Today, the situation is reversed — it is undervalued by $13,000, which analysts see as room for growth.

Volatility vs Gold

Bitcoin’s volatility relative to gold has fallen to a record low of 2.0. This means that including Bitcoin in an investment portfolio requires only twice the risk capital as gold. Previously, the gap was much larger.

To reach comparable private investment in gold (~$5 trillion), Bitcoin’s market capitalization ($2.2 trillion currently) would need to increase by roughly 13%. This is the figure that drives the target price to $126,000.

Corporate purchases and index inflows

A key growth driver remains corporate buying. Companies currently hold more than 6% of total Bitcoin supply, reducing price fluctuations and making the asset more stable. JPMorgan compared this effect to post-2008 quantitative easing programs, when central banks bought bonds to lower market volatility.

Another factor is the inclusion of Bitcoin-related companies in global stock indices. For example, after Strategy (ex-MicroStrategy) was added to major benchmarks, investment increased; a similar situation occurred with Metaplanet after its inclusion in the FTSE All-World Index.

Competition among corporate holders

New players are also increasing interest. KindlyMD filed to raise $5 billion, naming Bitcoin its primary reserve asset. BSTR, led by Adam Beck, plans to compete with Marathon Digital for the position of the second-largest corporate Bitcoin holder after Strategy.

Alternative forecasts

JPMorgan’s forecast appears moderately optimistic, but more ambitious scenarios exist:

• Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, expects Bitcoin to reach $1.5 million by 2030 with widespread institutional adoption.
• Standard Chartered previously stated that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 within four years, given growing interest in crypto funds and institutional demand.
• Bitwise forecasts a price of $1.3 million by 2035.

🧠 Conclusion: According to TradingView, at the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $110,100. If JPMorgan’s forecast is realized, growth to the “fair price” would be about 13%.

Daily BTC/USDT chart on Binance exchange. Source: TradingView

For institutional investors, the cryptocurrency is becoming increasingly attractive: corporate accumulation, index inflows, and declining volatility gradually bring Bitcoin closer to gold as a key investment asset.

Bitcoin is gradually moving out of the “too risky” category and becoming a more predictable tool for major players. The bank essentially confirms the trend: cryptocurrency is increasingly taking a place alongside gold as a “digital safe-haven asset.”