Bitcoin and macroeconomics: McGlone’s forecast of $10,000

Senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone has once again reaffirmed one of the most widely discussed forecasts in the crypto market – a potential drop of Bitcoin to around $10,000. In an interview with the Ellio Trades project, the analyst explained in detail why he maintains an extremely bearish outlook on the cryptocurrency market and what fundamental factors, in his view, could lead to a serious decline in the price of the leading cryptocurrency.

McGlone has long been known for his cautious, and often openly negative, stance toward cryptocurrencies. The host of Ellio Trades noted that despite his skepticism toward digital assets, he considers McGlone one of Bloomberg’s strongest analysts in macroeconomics and commodity markets. At the same time, the expert remains one of the most consistent critics of the cryptocurrency market among major financial analysts.

Back in December 2025, McGlone publicly stated that the price of Bitcoin could fall to $10,000. Since then, he has repeated this forecast several times, including at the end of February 2026. According to him, the current crypto market cycle is close to completion, and the combination of macroeconomic factors and internal industry issues is creating conditions for a serious correction.

During the interview, the host recalled that the analyst had made bold predictions about Bitcoin in the past. For example, in 2018 McGlone spoke about the possibility of the price falling to $1,100. In reality, the asset declined to around $3,000, which triggered criticism from the crypto community. The analyst himself noted that he considers that forecast partially justified. According to him, macroeconomic analysis requires the ability to focus on long-term trends and to be prepared for the fact that markets may move against expectations for some time.

According to McGlone, one of the key problems of the crypto market is related to the overall condition of the digital asset sector. As one of the indicators, he uses the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index, which reflects the dynamics of the largest cryptocurrencies. According to the analyst, the index fell by about 20 percent in 2025 and continued to decline by another 20 percent in 2026. Such a steady downward trend, in his opinion, indicates a weakening market and a lack of strong factors capable of quickly reversing the direction of movement.

Another argument raised by McGlone relates to investor psychology. He noted that many market participants continue to actively “buy the dip.” In a bullish market such a strategy may work, but during bearish phases it often leads to further price declines because investors continue buying an asset that is gradually losing value.

However, in McGlone’s view, the main problem of the crypto market is the enormous supply of digital assets. Today the market includes tens of millions of tokens and cryptocurrency projects. McGlone emphasized that most investors effectively recognize the value of only a limited number of instruments, primarily dollar-denominated stablecoins used as a means of payment and liquidity storage. Yet the share of such assets remains relatively small compared with the total capitalization of the crypto market.

According to the analyst, it is precisely the excess supply and the massive flow of new tokens that create constant pressure on the market. He noted that after the launch of exchange-traded funds based on Bitcoin and after the period of political euphoria associated with the victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. elections, the market experienced strong growth. However, in his view, this surge became the culmination of a speculative cycle.

McGlone believes that this period effectively marked the peak of the crypto market. After that, the industry entered what he describes as a “hangover” phase – a prolonged period of correction and revaluation of assets. According to him, such a phase may last quite a long time and will end only when the market clears out a large number of inefficient or useless projects.

Interestingly, the analyst does not view the $10,000 level as the final bottom for Bitcoin. Instead, he describes this price as the most common historical trading level. In statistics this is referred to as the price mode – the level at which an asset most frequently traded during a certain period. According to McGlone, around 2019–2020 the range near $10,000 became a key point in the formation of Bitcoin’s market value.

The expert also pointed to the growing connection between cryptocurrencies and other financial markets. According to him, Bitcoin is increasingly correlated with other digital assets as well as with traditional high-risk instruments. As an example, he cited the Market Vectors Digital Assets 100 Small Cap index, which tracks smaller cryptocurrency projects. Its correlation with Bitcoin has reached about 0.84, whereas previously it had been negative. This means that declines in smaller cryptocurrencies now have a stronger impact on the overall market dynamics and on Bitcoin’s price.

McGlone also believes that the cryptocurrency market is becoming increasingly integrated into the global financial system. This means it is beginning to be influenced by the same macroeconomic factors that affect stock markets and commodity assets. For example, he pointed to an interesting relationship between the S&P 500 index and copper prices. According to him, such correlations demonstrate that financial markets are becoming more interconnected.

The analyst also shared his views on other asset classes. He believes the peak for Bitcoin was reached during the period of 2023–2024, while gold prices likely peaked around 2025. The next asset that could attract investor attention, in his view, may be U.S. government bonds, particularly short-term Treasury securities.

In addition, McGlone expects a deterioration in the global economic situation. He stated that the world economy is gradually approaching a recession, and one of its sources could be China. In his view, China’s economy is already effectively in a recessionary phase but is being supported by large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus. At the same time, China’s economy depends heavily on exports, which account for roughly 30 percent of its GDP. However, other countries are increasingly resisting the growing flow of cheap Chinese goods because it intensifies deflationary pressure on their domestic markets.

As for gold, McGlone believes the asset has risen too sharply in recent years. Moreover, he notes that gold is beginning to show characteristics of a speculative asset. In particular, the 180-day moving volatility of gold has approached its highest levels in the past two decades.

Overall, McGlone concludes that the crypto market is currently going through a difficult period driven by both internal and external factors. Among the main reasons for a potential decline in Bitcoin he cites the excessive supply of crypto assets, the end of the speculative cycle of 2024–2025, the strengthening correlation with other risky assets, and the growing influence of macroeconomic factors. In addition, he believes that the real beneficiaries of regulation and financial reforms may not be cryptocurrencies but rather dollar-based stablecoins and U.S. Treasury bonds.

According to McGlone, the final bottom of the crypto market may form only when the sector eliminates a large number of weak projects and excess tokens. Until that happens, he believes Bitcoin will remain part of the broader financial system and will continue to respond to global economic trends. For this reason, he considers the probability of a sharp and unexpected upward reversal of the market to be extremely low.