🦄 Ethereum has been hovering on the edge of a major price surge for months, with $5,000 increasingly mentioned as a key psychological target. Yet, despite favorable conditions for the broader crypto market, ETH has so far failed to break through this threshold. Let’s analyze what is holding the second-largest cryptocurrency back.
Pressure from long-term holders (LTH) One of the main factors is the behavior of so-called LTH (long-term holders) — investors who keep coins for months or years.
One of the main factors is the behavior of so-called LTH (long-term holders) — investors who keep coins for months or years.
ETH and Liveliness metric. Source: Glassnode
According to Glassnode, the Liveliness metric shows rising activity: old, “dormant” coins are coming back into circulation. This means some investors decided to lock in profits after the recent rally.
- The more old coins hit the market, the greater the downward pressure on price.
- Historically, such periods coincided with consolidation or correction phases.
- For ETH, this signals the market isn’t ready for a sustainable breakout without new buyers.
Futures traders fueling bearish sentiment
Another factor is the derivatives market. The taker buy-sell ratio from CryptoQuant has remained below 1 for a month.
Ethereum and Taker Buy Sell Ratio metric. Source: CryptoQuant
- This indicates that futures and perpetual contracts are dominated by selling.
- When open interest grows while the buy-sell ratio is negative, markets often see higher volatility and additional price pressure.
- In other words: derivatives traders keep “betting against ETH.
” This dynamic often prevents the asset from climbing, even if the spot market remains supportive.
Support levels and the psychological barrier
Currently, the key support is at around $4,211. This level is preventing a deeper correction.
However, to reach $5,000, ETH needs stronger demand — from both institutional players and retail investors. Without a solid capital inflow, the market risks getting stuck in range.
Ethereum price analysis. Source: TradingView
- $5,000 is not just a technical milestone but also a psychological one.
- Breaking above could spark fresh FOMO and accelerate growth.
- But with demand still muted, the move is postponed.
What could trigger the breakout?
- Institutional interest:
- approval of new Ethereum ETFs or rising inflows into existing funds could push the price up.
- Growth in DeFi and L2:
- mass adoption of Layer 2 solutions (Arbitrum, Optimism, Linea) and ecosystem projects can increase ETH demand.
- Network upgrades:
- announcements on scaling improvements or lower fees typically act as catalysts.
- Network upgrades:
- announcements on scaling improvements or lower fees typically act as catalysts.
Market recovery: if Bitcoin holds above key levels, ETH usually follows. - What’s next? Scenarios for Ethereum
- Support: $4,211. A drop below may send price down to $3,626.
- Resistance: $4,957. A breakout above paves the way toward the psychological $5,000+.
- Growth currently lacks one key factor — a massive return of demand. As long as big players are locking in profits and traders don’t believe in growth, the move to new highs is postponed.
- The main question: who will prove stronger — profit-taking “old” investors or new buyers ready to believe in Ethereum at $5,000 and beyond?
- announcements on scaling improvements or lower fees typically act as catalysts.
What’s next? Scenarios for Ethereum
- Support: $4,211. A drop below may send price down to $3,626.
- Resistance: $4,957. A breakout above paves the way toward the psychological $5,000+.
Right now, growth lacks one thing — a strong return of demand. As long as big players are taking profits and traders remain skeptical, the path to new highs is delayed.
The main question: who will prevail — profit-taking long-term holders or new buyers ready to believe in Ethereum above $5,000?
⚖️ Conclusion
Ethereum is stuck in a “pressure corridor”:
- on one side — long-term holders locking in profits,
- on the other — futures traders betting on decline.
Without fresh capital and renewed interest from institutions and retail, the road to $5,000 is postponed.
Still, as long as support holds above $4,211 and demand gradually returns, Ethereum retains every chance for a new historical growth phase.
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