The Week That Shook the Market: Iran, Anthropic and the Capital Rotation

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 sent Bitcoin down to $63,000 — and almost immediately pushed it back to $68,000 after the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The crypto market lived through one of its most intense weeks in recent months: while geopolitics flipped quotations upside down, AI companies divided military contracts, miners counted losses, and Bitcoin ETFs broke a five-week streak of capital outflows.

1-month BTC/USD chart. Source: Bitstamp

BITCOIN: FIVE “RED” MONTHS AND AN ETF REVERSAL

The week opened with a drop below $65,000: Donald Trump’s decision to raise the global tariff from 10% to 15% triggered $230 million in long liquidations. Bitcoin is heading toward its fifth consecutive “red” monthly close — only the second such case in modern history.

Analyst Rekt Capital warns that the 200-week EMA now acts as resistance, and the shortest bear market in history lasted 365 days — the current one counts only about 140. At the same time, ETF data provide grounds for cautious optimism. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted more than $1 billion over three consecutive trading sessions, breaking a five-week outflow streak.

The recovery was led by the iShares Bitcoin Trust from BlackRock, which recorded $275.82 million in inflows in a single day on February 26. ETF analyst Nate Geraci noted that investors are “buying the dip”: about $6.5 billion left the funds since the October peak — a modest figure compared to $55 billion in cumulative inflows since January 2024. River reported record institutional adoption: in 2025, large players collectively acquired 829,000 BTC, 60% of the largest U.S. banks are working on Bitcoin products, and the number of countries holding BTC has reached 23.

ANTHROPIC: CONFLICT WITH THE PENTAGON AND A CHINESE TRACE

The week’s main corporate scandal erupted around Anthropic. Donald Trump banned its use across all federal agencies with a six-month transition period after it refused to provide unlimited access to its models.

CEO Dario Amodei outlined two red lines: mass surveillance of U.S. citizens and fully autonomous weapons. In an interview with CBS News on February 28, Amodei clarified that Anthropic does not oppose most government use cases of its AI models.

While Anthropic held its ground, Elon Musk’s xAI signed a deal granting Grok access to classified systems, and OpenAI secured its own contract with the Department of Defense. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth labeled the company “a supply chain threat” — wording previously used for entities such as Huawei. Meanwhile, Anthropic accused DeepSeek, Moonshot and MiniMax of unauthorized use of Claude through 24,000 fake accounts.

AI: BREAKTHROUGHS AND THE DARK SIDE OF AUTOMATION

Anthropic introduced Claude Code Security, a vulnerability detection tool that sent CrowdStrike shares down 18% and Palo Alto Networks down 9%. The Claude Opus 4.6 model identified more than 500 critical vulnerabilities. MARA Holdings reported a $1.71 billion loss and announced construction of AI data centers. The AI agent Lobstar Wilde mistakenly transferred $441,788 in tokens, demonstrating the risks of autonomous systems. Jack Dorsey’s Block cut 4,000 employees, while its shares rose 31%.

GEOPOLITICS: HOT, TRADE AND SANCTIONS WAR

On February 28, Trump announced the launch of Operation “Epic Fury,” targeting the country’s nuclear and missile programs.

• After Khamenei’s death, Bitcoin rebounded from $63,000 to $68,200 in less than a day.
• Within 24 hours, 157,000 traders were liquidated for $657 million.
• The U.S. introduced a unified 15% tariff, and the Supreme Court limited the use of the IEEPA Act.
• Following the shutdown of Garantex, several exchanges filled the vacated niche, helping to bypass sanctions.
• According to Chainalysis, illicit addresses received at least $154 billion in 2025.

1-day BTC/USD chart. Source: Bitstamp

REGULATION AND THE INSTITUTIONAL FRONT

Senator Richard Blumenthal initiated an investigation against Binance over suspicions of processing $1.7 billion in transactions linked to sanctioned entities. “It appears Binance ignored obvious red flags, knowingly allowed illegal accounts to operate and even provided direct support to money-laundering structures,” he said.

Morgan Stanley applied for a trust license to custody digital assets and offer staking. The application was registered on February 18 with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency under the name “Morgan Stanley Digital Trust, National Association.”

Strategy acquired another 592 BTC, bringing total investments to $54.56 billion. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor stated: “If Bitcoin is not heading to zero — it is heading to one million.”

MARKET SENTIMENT: UNCERTAINTY AS THE NEW NORMAL

The week became a stress test across three dimensions: geopolitics, regulation and corporate transformation. Bitcoin behaved like a risk asset during the shock and like a hedge amid signs of de-escalation. The market shows growing maturity, yet key drivers remain events in the Middle East and the reaction of energy markets.