The market is rising, but trust is still missing

19.02.2026

Yesterday’s session looked quite optimistic at first glance. The Nasdaq closed up about 0.8%, and the S&P 500 gained around 0.6%. On the chart, it resembles continued growth and a return of confidence. But if you look deeper, the day left a very different impression. During trading, the market looked weaker than the final numbers suggest. Any attempt at a strong move higher was met fairly quickly with selling. The gains were not held – they were taken.

This is an important psychological signal. When the market cannot hold positive momentum even on a good day, it means that large players still do not believe in a sustainable continuation of the move. It looks more like a cautious rebound than the start of a new powerful trend. Money is coming in, but without enthusiasm, and at the first opportunity, it prefers to exit.

The main support for the market once again was the artificial intelligence theme. Nvidia continues to pull the index higher, with gains accelerating ahead of earnings expectations and news of cooperation with Meta Platforms. But what is interesting is not just the stock move itself, but the fact that the market increasingly views Nvidia not simply as a GPU maker, but as an infrastructure monopolist for the AI economy.

Meta, according to reports, will use not only Nvidia’s graphics accelerators, but also CPUs and networking solutions. This points to an expanding ecosystem in which Nvidia becomes a full-stack technology supplier for building AI data centers. This strengthens its position so much that competitors begin to look weaker. Against this backdrop, Advanced Micro Devices and Arista Networks are slipping. The market is betting on the leader, not the entire sector at once.

That is why the current rally looks narrow. It is being driven by a few major names that are lifting the indices, but broad participation is still missing. This always makes the move less durable. When only a group of leaders is rising, any correction in those stocks can quickly drag the entire index down.

The second key theme is the Federal Reserve. Yesterday’s meeting minutes did not give the market what it wanted to hear. Investors continue to hope for policy easing and rate cuts soon, but the Fed remains cautious. The message is unchanged: no rush, more flexibility, and a willingness to keep rates higher for longer if inflation does not fall fast enough.

In simple terms, the market is waiting for cheaper money, but the Fed is not promising it anytime soon. The consensus still expects the first rate cut in summer, around July, but the tone of the minutes is the classic “wait and see.” And that uncertainty explains why the rally looks so fragile. The market is trying to move higher, but without internal strength.

Oil added another factor. With tensions rising in the Middle East, prices jumped sharply. And for the market, this is bad news. Higher oil almost always means the risk of renewed inflationary pressure. And if inflation starts accelerating again, the Fed will have even fewer reasons to cut rates. It becomes a vicious circle: the market wants easing, but rising oil makes it less likely.

Today, investors will focus on two directions. First, earnings reports from major companies, especially in the consumer and industrial sectors, such as Walmart and Deere & Company. They will show how strong the US economy remains under high rates. Second, the market will watch whether yesterday’s gains can hold. If selling returns on attempts to extend the move, it will confirm that a true trend is still absent.

The market is currently in a difficult phase. There is growth, but it is unstable. It relies on a narrow group of leaders and remains constrained by Fed policy. This looks more like an attempt to move higher than a full reversal.

The main strategy in such conditions is not to chase the indices and not to try to catch every impulse. The best approach right now is to observe, enter gradually, and focus on truly strong stocks that can withstand volatility.

A real sustainable rally will begin when the market stops falling on good news and starts moving higher on a broad front, not only thanks to a few AI giants. For now, it looks more like a cautious step forward than a confident march.