Elon Musk once again pushed the market toward acceleration. At the xAI hackathon he stated that the task of fully autonomous driving is “almost solved” and that in three weeks in Austin Model Y vehicles should begin driving without a driver and even without a passenger. If this happens, it will not be just a technological demonstration, but an event that could seriously affect the dynamics of Tesla shares at the end of the year.
What could the launch of robotaxis mean for investors?
First, the short-term market reaction is already noticeable. Tesla shares have bounced off the 50-day moving average and are approaching the level of 455 dollars. Technical analysts are considering a possible entry point around 474.07 dollars if the price manages to consolidate above resistance. In other words, the market is already starting to price future expectations into the quotes, relying on Musk’s statements.
Second, the medium-term context matters. Musk promised to expand the use of robotaxis to eight to ten megacities by the end of 2025. If the company truly fulfills these plans, Tesla will strengthen its position in the race for autonomous transportation, where competition is intensifying each quarter. The robotaxi sector today is not just an experiment but a potentially enormous market, and those who arrive first will gain an advantage comparable to the one early players in mobile platforms once had.
But there is also a third part of the equation — risks. At the moment, about sixty vehicles operate in Austin, which is significantly below the previously announced five hundred. Musk traditionally demonstrates confidence in timelines, but history suggests these timelines can shift. In addition, autonomous driving depends not only on technical progress but also on regulators. Safety, certification and approval issues may become exactly the barriers capable of slowing deployment even when the technology itself is ready.
Thus, the market today views FSD and future robotaxis as a key element of Tesla’s future business model. If the company shows real progress and demonstrates the scalability of the project, this truly can become a turning point in the transportation industry and a factor that could push capitalization upward. However, it is important for investors to maintain a sober assessment of the situation, considering volatility, dependence on regulatory decisions, and the uncertainty created by constantly shifting timelines.
And ultimately the main question remains: will Tesla truly be able to become the leader of the robotaxi market, or will competitors, moving more cautiously but systematically, catch up and overtake it? The answer will be given over the next year, or even the next three weeks, when we see whether those fully autonomous Model Y vehicles Musk talks about will appear in Austin.
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