Stocks, rates and gold today

The US stock market started the week with a noticeable but so far controlled correction. The Dow Jones index fell by almost 400 points, or about -0.8%, coming under pressure primarily from the financial sector. Investors are carefully digesting the first bank reports for the fourth quarter, and the market reaction shows that expectations were overstated.

JPMorgan attracted the most attention. The bank’s shares lost more than 4% after the release of a report that the market perceived as too cautious. Earnings came in below the most optimistic forecasts, and management’s comments on lending prospects and margins did not add enthusiasm. Nevertheless, from the perspective of the technical picture and the long-term trend, it is too early to speak about a trend reversal. JPMorgan shares remain in an ascending channel, and the current decline looks more like profit-taking after strong growth in previous months.

At the same time, Bank of New York Mellon looks noticeably more resilient. The shares continue to rise, having recovered from a recent local decline. Investors positively assess the bank’s business model, focused on fee income and asset servicing, which makes it less sensitive to interest rate fluctuations compared to traditional lending giants.

Finance and rates

The political backdrop around the Federal Reserve remains tense. The dispute between Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell over the independence of the regulator continues, but importantly, markets are barely reacting to it. Investors are showing a pragmatic approach: political rhetoric is perceived as noise, while actual Fed decisions and corporate performance remain the focus.

Market participants are currently much more interested in how companies are going through the earnings season and what guidance they provide for the first quarter of 2026. These benchmarks will shape expectations for earnings and equity valuations in the coming months, rather than loud statements from Washington.

Inflation and gold

Inflation data turned out to be mixed but overall favorable for risk assets and gold. The headline consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly above expectations, while core inflation, stripped of volatile components, was below forecasts. This signals to the market that inflationary pressure is gradually easing, meaning there is still room for future Fed rate cuts.

Against this backdrop, gold continues to set new all-time highs. The price reached around $4,640 per ounce. The rally is supported by several factors at once: expectations of a more accommodative US monetary policy, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly around Iran, and steady demand from central banks. Gold once again confirms its status as a key safe-haven asset amid uncertainty.

International arena

At the global level, data from China attracted attention. The country recorded a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion. It is particularly important that the growth was not driven by the US, but by the diversification of exports to other regions of the world. This points to the gradual adaptation of the Chinese economy to new trade realities and reduces dependence on the American market, which in the long term may shift the balance of power in global trade.

Oil

The oil market, after a recent short-term rally, has moved into a moderate correction. Brent and WTI prices edged lower amid data showing rising inventories and reports of resumed supplies from Venezuela. So far, the move looks more technical than the start of a trend reversal. Investors continue to monitor OPEC+ decisions and geopolitics, but the oil market is not sending any sharp signals at the moment.

Conclusion

The current market environment looks more like a pause and a local correction than the beginning of a serious downturn. Fundamental factors remain generally resilient, inflationary pressure is gradually easing, and rate expectations continue to support both equities and gold. In the coming days, the key driver will be bank earnings and comments from Fed officials. They will set the tone for markets for the rest of January.