Silver has once again come into the spotlight amid the sharp escalation of the situation around Iran. The metal’s quotes climbed to the $96 level, showing a confident recovery and fueling speculation about a potential renewal of its historical high. The psychological $100 mark is viewed by the market as a key threshold: a decisive breakout could open the way for accelerated movement toward $120 and above, especially if geopolitical tensions continue to intensify.
Precious metals traditionally act as safe-haven assets during periods of instability. Unlike gold, silver combines both investment and industrial components, making it a more volatile instrument. As global risks increase, demand is strengthening from investors seeking to diversify portfolios and reduce dependence on equity markets and currency fluctuations.
From a technical perspective, the current market structure supports a bullish scenario. On the daily and weekly timeframes, positive momentum persists: the price remains above key moving averages, and impulse waves are forming a sequence of higher lows. However, a bearish divergence is forming on oscillators, signaling a possible weakening of momentum. This factor cannot be ignored, as the market may correct sharply in the event of de-escalation news.
An additional trigger for accelerating growth could be a breakout of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above the 77 level. Such a signal would confirm strengthening momentum and a potential transition into a phase of extended price movement. In this case, speculative capital may actively enter the market, increasing volatility and bringing a test of historical highs closer.
The fundamental backdrop remains tense. Reports indicate military incidents in the region, including aircraft losses and strikes on strategic infrastructure. According to available information, Iran is targeting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and oil refining facilities in neighboring countries. There are also statements about strikes on military and political targets of opponents, although the reliability of some of these reports requires additional verification. In such conditions, information warfare becomes no less significant than actual combat operations.
If, against this background, the U.S. stock market begins to decline, inflows into safe-haven assets, including gold and silver, may intensify. Capital rotation from equities into commodities traditionally accelerates price movements during periods of panic or heightened uncertainty.
However, the market remains extremely sensitive to news. Any signal of readiness for negotiations or a reduction in the intensity of the conflict could quickly change the balance of power. In that case, investors may start taking profits on safe-haven assets, leading to a sharp pullback in quotes. In an environment of high volatility, scenarios can shift rapidly, and technical levels may be tested with increased amplitude.
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