Half-trillion chips: can they blow up the market?

📉 Today, after the market closes, we are expecting, without exaggeration, one of the most important earnings reports of the year – Nvidia steps onto the stage and can single-handedly set the mood for all funds. If the company delivers again, Wall Street’s sentiment will become as upbeat as Jensen Huang in his leather jacket.

On Polymarket, traders have almost made up their minds already: with a 92% probability Nvidia will beat its previous revenue records. And this is not wishful fan thinking, but a solid market expectation. Investors want to see the key thing – that the demand for chips has not gone anywhere, and forecasts of revenue rising to $500 billion in 2026 sound not like fiction, but like a working scenario.

If Nvidia delivers again, the positivity might be enough not only for the entire S&P 500, but the crypto market will also get its own dose of the “mood cocktail.”

Now – a little about what heated up investor interest. At the GTC conference, Nvidia shares jumped 5% at one point and crossed the $200 mark for the first time. Huang spoke extremely confidently, brushed aside talk of an “AI bubble”, and mentioned that the company has visibility for more than $500 billion in combined revenue from the Blackwell and Rubin architectures through 2026.

Yes, the details are vague, but analysts are already building their equations. Wolfe Research suggests that this refers to chip shipments worth $500 billion for 2025–2026, while their previous forecast was only $360 billion. That means potentially +$140 billion to datacenter revenue and roughly +$3 to the expected earnings per share for 2026. For the market, this sounds like a second serving of dessert after a hearty dinner.

But Nvidia is not only about earnings. Huang showcased a whole constellation of new projects:

• an AI-native stack for future 6G networks, built together with Nokia and fully manufactured in the U.S.,
  
  
  
  
  
• NVQLink – a link between quantum processors and GPUs,
• large-scale partnerships with the U.S. Department of Energy to build seven new supercomputers, including Solstice with 100,000 GPUs – the largest public scientific AI platform,
  
• an updated concept of AI factories – next-generation data centers based on BlueField-4 and Omniverse DSX,
• expansion of open-source model families and ten new industry collaborations – from Foxconn and Caterpillar to Disney,
• and an ambitious plan with Uber to produce roughly 100,000 Level-4 autonomous vehicles by 2027.

The finale of the presentation sealed everything with record results from the Grace Hopper Superchip, which delivered the best performance in financial inference tests. Nvidia continues transforming from a chip manufacturer into a center of power for science, industry, and real-time services.

💥 And a small reality check: Nvidia shares have fallen 7% over the past five days and are now 14.5% below their all-time high. So the company needs a strong report badly – otherwise, the market may give Huang not applause, but a gentle pat on the shoulder accompanied by a dry “we didn’t expect this”.