Gold and Bitcoin vs the Dollar, or What’s Behind QCP Capital’s Report

📈 Trading firm QCP Capital has released a new macroeconomic review, drawing an unexpected but logical conclusion: under the current Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, investors should bet on gold and Bitcoin.
The reason lies in the uncertainty caused by the U.S. government shutdown and the suspension of key economic data releases.

Information Vacuum and the Role of Private Data

Due to the budget crisis, most U.S. government agencies have halted the publication of statistics.
Economists now rely on private sources — such as ISM business activity reports, ADP private sector employment data, and signals coming from the Fed.
Until the release of the Fed meeting minutes on October 8 and Jerome Powell’s speech on October 9, analysts are effectively “working blind.”
This creates a situation where the market reacts to rumors and expectations faster than to real data.

U.S. Economy: Stable but Not Accelerating

According to QCP Capital’s observations, the U.S. economy remains resilient, though signs of slowing are becoming increasingly apparent.
GDP growth in Q3 is projected to be around 3%, core inflation remains at 3%, and ISM indexes stay above 50 — still signaling growth, though at a slower pace.

Against this backdrop, analysts believe a sharp Fed rate cut is unlikely.
More likely, the regulator will choose a gradual easing strategy to avoid destabilizing inflation expectations or triggering a new round of debt market speculation.

Market Correction: Not Panic, but a Technical Pause

According to QCP Capital, yesterday’s price decline is not tied to Fed policy changes but reflects portfolio rebalancing by large investors.
Rising long-term bond yields and a stronger dollar prompted investors to lock in profits from tech stocks — especially those tied to artificial intelligence.
This is a typical market scenario ahead of new central bank signals: short-term volatility without a fundamental trend reversal.

Gold Back in Focus

While investors argue about where the stock market bottom lies, gold confidently hit new all-time highs, breaking above $4,000 per ounce.

1-day chart of XAU/USD

The rally is supported by several factors:

• uncertainty surrounding the U.S. budget and potential government shutdown,
• political debates about Fed independence,
• ongoing gold purchases by central banks.

In an environment of loose monetary policy and high inflation tolerance, gold is once again becoming a key defensive asset.
QCP Capital analysts state directly: “Gold and Bitcoin are the two natural beneficiaries of lower real rates.”

Why Bitcoin Is in the Same Basket as Gold

Like gold, Bitcoin serves as an inflation hedge — but with greater volatility and growth potential.

QCP Capital notes that capital inflows into crypto are occurring amid a structural shift in investment flows: money is gradually moving out of overvalued Big Tech stocks and into digital and commodity assets.
At the same time, the firm views short-term corrections not as sell signals but as buying opportunities.

Asia and the Impact of Japanese Policy

Interestingly, the situation in Asia is unfolding differently.
The victory of Sanae Takaichi in the race for Japan’s ruling party leadership triggered a sharp rise in the Nikkei index and a weakening yen.

Markets are pricing in a return to reflationary policy — essentially a renewed version of “Abenomics”: increased government spending, monetary expansion, and slower normalization by the Bank of Japan.
This combination supports risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, and may improve liquidity during the Asian trading session.

The Artificial Intelligence Investment Supercycle

Despite short-term fluctuations, the key market driver remains the AI investment supercycle.
The partnership between OpenAI and AMD, new data center projects with up to 6 GW capacity, and the SOX index hitting record highs all show that the technological momentum is far from over.
However, there’s a flip side: rising energy demand is creating a new inflationary factor that the Fed will have to take into account in its decisions.

Labor Market and “Alternative Statistics”

According to QCP Capital, the labor market shows signs of cooling but is still far from a recession.
The employment index within ISM rose despite weak ADP data, confirming the idea of a lag between surveys and official statistics.
While government data remains delayed, analysts advise watching initial jobless claims, NFIB indexes, and consumer confidence indicators.

🔍 Investment Takeaways

QCP Capital emphasizes that historically, U.S. government shutdowns have little direct impact on the economy but heighten market anxiety.
The main takeaway from the report: bet against dollar strength and favor assets that benefit from looser policy — gold and Bitcoin.

Short-term corrections should be seen as entry points, not reasons for panic.
In the coming months, the balance between tech optimism and defensive strategies will guide capital flows, with gold and Bitcoin remaining key reference points for those seeking stability in an era of change.