The Investment Director of Bitwise presented a long-term Bitcoin valuation model, according to which the BTC price could reach $1.3 million by 2035. Moreover, in the expert’s opinion, this is an even more conservative forecast than one might expect, considering current trends in the digital asset market.
The calculation is based on the assumption that Bitcoin’s share of gold’s market capitalization will rise from the current approximately 9% to 25%, reflecting the gradual recognition of BTC as “digital gold” and a hedge against inflation.
The analyst emphasized that if the growth rate of gold itself continues, along with institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, increasing demand for inflation protection, and Bitcoin’s fixed supply, a $1 million price would already seem understated. At the same time, he warned about ongoing risks related to regulation, political changes, and potential market volatility, which, despite asset maturation, can still create significant drawdowns.
The historical four-year Bitcoin cycle, based on hash rate and halvings, according to the asset manager, is gradually becoming outdated, but its principles remain a guide for long-term investors. The Bitwise CIO noted that even under a conservative scenario, investors should be prepared for periods of high volatility and possible corrections, but the long-term trend looks extremely positive.
The model also takes into account the growth of institutional demand for BTC, the expansion of infrastructure for storing and trading digital assets, and increased recognition of cryptocurrencies as a portfolio diversification tool. If these trends continue, the $1.3 million forecast by 2035 may prove not only achievable but also moderate compared to potential market growth.
Interestingly, in the short-term horizon, the market shows inertia: even the announcement of the next QE launch on December 12 did not push Bitcoin above $100,000. Nevertheless, long-term growth prospects remain very ambitious — Bitwise incorporates a ten-year growth scenario in the model, under which BTC could not only overcome the psychological barriers of $100k and $500k but reach $1.3 million, solidifying its status as a world-class digital asset.
Thus, despite possible interim corrections and regulatory instability, long-term market expectations for Bitcoin remain extremely optimistic, and the cryptocurrency itself is gradually becoming a full-fledged instrument for hedging and value storage alongside traditional assets such as gold.
A video fragment of the presentation can be viewed on our Telegram channel.
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