The American banking holding Citigroup has revised its forecasts for major cryptocurrencies for the current year, citing a slowdown in market growth due to prolonged regulation of digital assets in the United States. Bank experts note that the lack of a clear regulatory framework is hindering the inflow of institutional capital and limiting the potential for significant price increases. As a result, the base forecast for Bitcoin has been lowered from $143,000 to $112,000 by the end of 2026, while the forecast for Ethereum has been reduced from $4,304 to $3,175.
Citigroup analysts also considered a scenario of a possible global recession. In this case, the decline in prices could be more dramatic: Bitcoin could fall to $58,000, while Ethereum could drop to $1,198. Conversely, the optimistic scenario assumes that with sustained investor demand and normalization of regulation, prices could rise to $165,000 per Bitcoin and $4,488 per Ethereum.
Among the key factors affecting the market, Citigroup specialists highlight the prolonged consideration of the CLARITY bill, aimed at distributing regulatory authority over the digital asset market. Due to political disagreements in the Senate, the adoption of the document is currently impossible. Analysts note that its approval would require the support of at least seven Democratic senators along with Republican congressmen. Strengthening of Democratic positions after the November midterm elections could further reduce the chances of the bill being passed in the near term.
An additional pressure factor on the crypto market, according to Citigroup, is the discussion of a possible ban on U.S. officials profiting from crypto projects. In particular, this concerns World Liberty Financial, linked to the family of former President Donald Trump, which creates additional uncertainty and increases caution among market participants.
Banking experts point out that the key psychological level for Bitcoin in the coming months remains $70,000, which may persist at least until the active phase of the U.S. election campaign. Ethereum’s dynamics, in their view, will largely depend on investor activity, which has remained relatively low in recent months.
Citigroup emphasizes that under current conditions, the main support for the market may come from long-term structural trends, including the development of real-world asset tokenization, the expansion of stablecoin usage, and the institutional adoption of crypto products. Earlier, CEO of Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz also stated that Bitcoin could remain in the $60,000–$80,000 range until the end of the year, reflecting cautious expectations of major financial players.
Overall, Citigroup concludes that the cryptocurrency market remains heavily influenced by political and regulatory factors, and further growth will depend not only on investor demand but also on progress in legislation, as well as on the global economic environment.
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