Bitwise Forecast for 2026

The forecast does not look like a set of flashy slogans but as an attempt to capture the moment when the crypto market finally exits the “exotic asset” phase and integrates into the global financial system. Bitwise is one of the largest and most respected asset managers in the crypto industry. The company manages the world’s largest public crypto index fund, BITW, and a range of products based on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Their forecasts are read not by X enthusiasts, but by institutional investors, family offices, and university endowments.

The main thesis of the report: 2026 will be a pivotal year. Not “another bull cycle,” but a year when old models stop working.

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle breaks
Bitwise expects Bitcoin to finally break the classic four-year cycle tied to halvings. Historically, the market followed a simple scenario: halving, growth, bubble, crash, long “winter.” However, institutional capital inflows, the launch of spot ETFs, and Bitcoin’s transformation into a full financial asset make this model outdated. Analysts predict Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high outside the usual timeframe and without classic “crowd euphoria.” Growth will be less sharp but more sustainable.

Bitcoin volatility lower than Nvidia stock
Bitwise forecasts that Bitcoin’s volatility in 2026 will be lower than some tech giants, including Nvidia. The reason is simple: Bitcoin is maturing, its ownership structure is changing, and large funds do not trade it as a meme. Meanwhile, tech stocks remain hostage to AI cycles, earnings expectations, and regulatory risks. As a result, “digital gold” may be more stable than a Nasdaq star.

ETFs will buy more than 100% of new BTC, ETH, and Solana supply
Bitwise estimates that total ETF demand will exceed the new supply of these three key assets. This creates a structural deficit: coins that should enter the market will stay in funds. Seller pressure decreases, and the price becomes a function of demand rather than retail emotions. The market may encounter a situation where supply physically cannot keep up with institutional demand.

Public crypto companies outperform tech sector
Bitwise expects that publicly traded crypto company stocks will outperform traditional tech stocks. Miners, infrastructure firms, custodians, and exchanges are moving from “risky bets” to “next-generation financial providers.” Many are already profitable but still valued at a discount.

Polymarket sets record for open interest
Bitwise expects Polymarket to set a new record in open interest. The reason is growing trust in decentralized probability pricing mechanisms. Investors increasingly believe collective prediction markets are more accurate than polls, experts, and rating agencies.

Stablecoins blamed for destabilizing a developing country’s currency
In 2026, Bitwise predicts a political scandal in which stablecoins are officially blamed for undermining the national currency of a developing country. Mass adoption of digital dollars reduces central bank control over the money supply. For the crypto industry, it will be painful but telling: if an asset can destabilize a currency, it really works.

New-type on-chain storage doubles assets under management
Bitwise expects the AUM of next-gen on-chain platforms to at least double. This is a response to institutional demand: transparency, control, automation, and minimizing human error.

Ethereum and Solana hit new highs with CLARITY law
Regulatory clarity remains a key factor. Bitwise links Ethereum and Solana reaching all-time highs to the adoption of the CLARITY law in the U.S., which clearly differentiates crypto assets as securities or commodities.

Half of the largest U.S. university endowments invest in crypto
Bitwise expects around 50% of the largest U.S. university endowment funds to gain direct exposure to cryptocurrencies. This marks the final institutionalization of the market.

Over 100 crypto ETFs will launch in the U.S.
ETF launches become routine. Bitwise predicts over 100 crypto ETFs — for individual assets, indices, sectors, and strategies. Crypto fully becomes a “normal investment product.”

Conclusion
Bitwise’s 2026 forecast paints a market without hysteria, without halving cults, and without naive belief in “quick Xs.” This is a market of capital, regulation, and long money. Less show, more accounting. And paradoxically, this is the most bullish scenario for crypto.