Cryptocurrency analysts are increasingly warning about the risk of a deep correction in Bitcoin – potentially up to a 70% decline from previous highs. The sharp drop in BTC’s price, which at times fell toward the $77,000 area, is now less often explained by classic technical analysis or “overheated” charts. Instead, attention is shifting toward a more fundamental issue: a severe liquidity shortage in the market.
One of the most widely discussed assessments came from CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju. According to him, the main driver of the previous bull cycle – a steady inflow of new capital – has effectively dried up. It was fresh money, rather than internal trader activity, that sustained Bitcoin’s growth over recent years. Today, the market remains under constant selling pressure, while the number of buyers willing to aggressively buy the dip continues to decline.
Ki Young Ju highlights Realized Cap as a key indicator – a metric that reflects the total value of Bitcoin based on the price at which coins last moved on-chain. Its stabilization amid falling market capitalization suggests that no new capital is entering the market. “When market cap declines while Realized Cap does not rise, this is no longer a bull market,” the analyst emphasizes. Under such conditions, any upside can only come from reallocating existing capital, which severely limits the potential for recovery.
Institutional factors that previously supported Bitcoin’s price also deserve special attention. Inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, along with large-scale purchases by MicroStrategy, helped keep BTC near the psychologically important $100,000 level for an extended period. However, analysts argue that this support is no longer as powerful as it once was. ETF inflows have slowed, and much of the institutional optimism has already been priced in.
Ki Young Ju considers a -70% collapse possible only under an extremely negative scenario – namely, if MicroStrategy were to shift from being a major buyer to a seller. Such a move would deliver a severe psychological blow to the market and could trigger a cascade of sell-offs. That said, he does not expect a straight-line crash. His base case is a prolonged sideways market marked by high volatility, sharp moves in both directions, and the absence of a clear trend until new sources of liquidity emerge.
Another worrying signal comes from the stablecoin sector. Analyst Darkfost notes that total stablecoin market capitalization began declining back in December, with more than $13 billion leaving the market since then. Particularly notable is the outflow from Binance, where balances dropped by approximately $3.1 billion. Because stablecoins serve as the primary “fuel” for trading and investment in crypto markets, their contraction directly points to capital outflows and growing risk aversion among investors.
Declining stablecoin liquidity means the market has fewer resources to support prices, absorb drawdowns, or ignite new growth impulses. In such an environment, even positive news is more likely to produce only short-lived rebounds rather than a meaningful shift in the broader trend.
As a result, Bitcoin’s current downturn is increasingly viewed as the outcome of structural changes in the market. The absence of new buyers, tightening liquidity, waning institutional activity, and a general move toward risk reduction are shaping conditions in which cryptocurrencies may remain under pressure for an extended period. The coming months are likely to be defined by high volatility, uncertainty, and a struggle to hold key levels, while a return to sustainable growth will depend primarily on the arrival of new capital – not on chart patterns alone.
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