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OPEC+ Decision: How Geopolitics Impacts Oil Prices

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🛢️ OPEC+ has announced the largest monthly oil production increase in two years — by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September 2025. The decision was made following a virtual meeting on August 3, involving eight countries: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.

According to media reports, the move was driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly concerns over possible supply disruptions from Russia. These concerns are fueled by pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who is demanding that Moscow make progress on a peaceful resolution of the war in Ukraine by August 8.

Another contributing factor is U.S. pressure on India to halt purchases of Russian oil. In response, OPEC+ countries are seeking to stabilize the global market and preemptively offset potential supply shortfalls.

Meanwhile, oil demand is growing more slowly than expected, and excess supply is increasing the risk of further price declines. Despite the geopolitical backdrop, oil prices are struggling to stay above the $69.50 mark — upward momentum is quickly curbed by profit-taking.

📉 Market participants are closely monitoring U.S. inventory data and demand in China, which remains weak, adding further instability to the global outlook.

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