Arthur Hayes is once again betting on Bitcoin’s rise — and he does so in his trademark style: no illusions, no moralizing, just cold calculation.
In his new essay “Suavemente,” Hayes looks at US politics not as a clash of ideologies, but as simple re-election arithmetic. His core idea is blunt and uncomfortable: US politics are driven not by values, but by the price of gasoline at the pump. Everything else is secondary.
Gasoline Matters More Than Democracy
Hayes argues that the average American voter cares little about geopolitical frameworks or foreign policy slogans. What matters are two things: the cost of living and how fast money is losing value. And the most visible, emotional indicator of inflation in the US is gasoline prices. Not CPI, not PCE, not Federal Reserve reports — but the number on the gas station sign.
The logic follows naturally: cheap gas makes inflation feel “under control.” If inflation is perceived as controlled, political capital is preserved. As a result, any policy that helps keep fuel prices low automatically becomes a priority.
Why Venezuela Enters the Picture
According to Hayes, US interest in Venezuela has little to do with democracy, human rights, or even pure geopolitics. It is about oil. About increasing supply, pushing prices down, and creating room for loose monetary policy.
Cheap oil equals cheap gasoline equals political comfort. That comfort allows governments to tolerate growing deficits, expanding money supply, and fiscal stimulus — as long as voters do not feel inflation directly.
Trump, Markets, and the Printing Press
Hayes emphasizes that Donald Trump thinks in market terms, not macroeconomic models. His indicators are stock indices, bond yields, and oil prices. As long as equities hold up, yields stay contained, and oil does not spike, stimulus can continue.
This leads to a key conclusion for investors: in such a setup, the system prefers to flood problems with liquidity rather than address root causes. Money printing stops being a temporary tool and becomes a political instrument.
Where Bitcoin Fits In
In Hayes’ framework, Bitcoin is not just a risk asset — it is a direct beneficiary of excess dollar liquidity. When money supply expands, nominal GDP inflates, and real problems are masked by cheap money, capital seeks protection.
Some flows into stocks, some into real estate, some into gold. But Bitcoin, in Hayes’ view, reflects this process best because it has a fixed supply and is deeply embedded in the global financial system.
Hayes’ Base Case
Hayes is not predicting an apocalypse or an abrupt policy tightening. His scenario is far more mundane — and therefore more dangerous for skeptics:
- oil remains under control
- gasoline does not become a political issue
- the US continues to expand money supply
- dollar liquidity keeps growing
- risk assets receive support
- Bitcoin and the broader crypto market get fuel for growth
He believes this environment could persist at least until 2026. Not because the system is sound, but because delaying tough decisions is politically convenient.
The Key Takeaway
“Suavemente” is not about crypto idealism or faith in technology. It is a cynical but coherent analysis of how power, money, and markets actually work. If gasoline prices stay under control, the printing press will keep running. And if the press keeps running, Bitcoin — in Hayes’ view — performs better than most assets.
Not because it is perfect. But because the system itself pushes capital toward scarce assets. That is why Hayes is once again betting on BTC’s rise. Not out of optimism. But out of cold calculation.
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