The latest move by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025 has drawn the attention of investors and analysts worldwide, as the regulator’s decision has the potential both to support the market and to create new risks for the U.S. economy and global financial markets. In the final trading sessions before the meeting, attention focused on key indicators and the behavior of major company stocks, showing increased volatility and caution among market participants.
The main U.S. indexes ended Monday lower: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%, the S&P 500 declined 0.4%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.1%. The main factor putting pressure on the markets is the anticipation of the results of the Fed’s final meeting of 2025. Investors are trying to predict the regulator’s actions, especially considering rising economic uncertainties and the continued influence of global events on financial markets.
The key focus is on the likelihood of a 0.25% rate cut. According to analysts, the probability that the Fed will take this step is nearly 89%. If this scenario materializes, the benchmark rate will fall to the range of 3.50%-3.75%, providing additional stimulus to the economy. However, experts warn that after lowering rates, the Fed may pause for the entirety of 2026, which could cool market expectations for further monetary easing and slow the growth dynamics of certain sectors.
Amid these expectations, individual stocks showed notable volatility. Nvidia rose 1.7% after the announcement that the U.S. authorized the export of H200 chips to China (read here). This move underscores the strategic importance of the artificial intelligence sector as a driver of long-term growth and strengthens the company’s position in the global market.
Carvana also drew investor interest, rising more than 10% due to its inclusion in the S&P 500 index, which increases institutional investor interest and share liquidity. Meanwhile, Tesla fell 3.4%, attempting to hold its 50-day moving average, indicating continued volatility in the tech sector and potential price swings amid uncertainty about the Fed’s rate decision.
For investors, the key takeaway is that the market is showing elevated caution ahead of the Fed’s decision, yet still opening opportunities for selective investments in specific sectors. The AI industry, index rebalancing, and major corporate news are creating separate growth points that can be used for strategic positioning.
At the same time, special attention should be given to the comments of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, as their tone and substance can set the direction of market movement for the entirety of 2026. Overall, the Fed’s final rate move of 2025 is both a chance to stimulate the economy and a potential risk linked to shifting market expectations and a possible pause in further monetary easing.
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