Explanation of current market events in simple terms

📊 Today financial markets look as if someone keeps turning the lights off in the hallway every time you try to walk through it. One moment there’s a flash of optimism, then a sudden drop, then news that seems written specifically to confuse everyone.

Even when positive news appears, the rise of stocks or cryptocurrencies is not guaranteed. Everything depends on major players, regulatory decisions, and investor expectations — meaning the reason lies in a combination of uncertainty, investor sentiment, and the influence of large market participants.

Let’s break down what is happening in human language, without overly complex terminology.

Why the market is wobbling

The main reason is expectations of future events. For example, interest rates remain high, and inflation is not falling as fast as expected. For companies, this means more expensive borrowing, which limits profit growth. Investors react to such factors earlier than the official data appears, so the market moves sharply.

Crypto market and the influence of big companies

Large bitcoin holders such as MicroStrategy (MSTR) and other companies that actively buy cryptocurrency have been important market “engines”. Their shares are included in passive index funds, and when they buy BTC, it creates a positive effect for the entire market.

But on October 10, MSCI, one of the largest index providers, published a statement saying it is considering whether companies whose main business is holding crypto should be treated as regular companies or as funds. If they are classified as funds, their stocks cannot be included in indices. This could lead to automatic sell-offs by ETFs and pension funds, putting pressure on prices.

The market “understood” this faster than anyone, which is why the October 10 drop was not a coincidence — it was a reaction to a structural threat for major crypto buyers (you can read an analysis from a specialist here).

Concrete examples

MicroStrategy (MSTR) — a company that actively buys bitcoin. In 2025, MSTR held more than 150,000 BTC, equivalent to about $5 billion. When the market saw that MSTR might be excluded from MSCI indices, its stock price dropped almost 10% in a single day. This is an example of how regulatory news directly affects the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) — at the beginning of November, the price fluctuated between $28,000 and $30,000. When rumors about MSCI’s decision started to appear, bitcoin dipped to $27,500, even though fundamental demand remained stable.

ETFs and passive funds — for example, BlackRock and Vanguard hold shares of MSTR and other crypto-related companies. Any decision they make to buy or sell creates a significant market impact.

For the record, Bitcoin has been declared “dead” 477 times in the media since its creation. If you had sold your bitcoin every time you saw such negative headlines, you would have missed 477 of the best opportunities. The chart below illustrates this.

Meaning: if you buy every time there’s good news and sell every time there’s bad news, you’re unlikely to achieve long-term profit.

Stock market situation

In the stock market, some companies stand out for showing stable profit growth despite instability:

Alphabet (GOOGL) — in Q3 2025 revenue grew 12% YoY and net profit increased 15%. YouTube continues gaining subscribers and Google Cloud is growing 20% year-over-year. Shares remain near all-time highs — around $3,200.

Broadcom (AVGO) — the company’s profit grew nearly 40% in the last quarter, driven by AI chip contracts for Google and Meta. Analysts are 90% in favor of “buy”.

Comfort Systems (FIX) — backlog increased to $9.2 billion, and quarterly revenue more than doubled compared to last year due to rising demand for data center infrastructure.

GE Aerospace (GE) — sales of aircraft engines and services are rising, and new contracts in hybrid-electric technologies offer long-term prospects for the next 5–10 years. Shares remain around $120 — close to their all-time high.

What this means for investors and what to do

• Evaluate companies’ fundamentals — profit, revenue growth, product demand.
  
  
• Do not try to “chase the market” at every drop or rally.
• Diversify between more stable leaders and companies with growth potential.
• Follow key regulatory decisions and events that may strongly affect the market.
  
• AI and data centers are the main drivers: companies providing equipment, chips, and services continue showing profit growth even in unstable conditions.
• Large stable companies remain reliable: GOOGL, GE — examples of strong fundamentals keeping stock prices high.
• Speculative ideas can show strong moves: AVGO, FIX and CLS — companies whose growth is directly tied to AI and infrastructure development.
• Financial sector begins a new cycle: Charles Schwab (SCHW) shows profit growth for 4 quarters in a row and expands access to private equity via acquiring Forge Global.

What to expect next

• If regulators make decisions favorable for crypto companies, the market may rebound quickly.
  
• If decisions are negative, a large-scale sell-off and pressure on index-included stocks may follow.
• On the stock market, companies with stable profits and demand will perform better even if the overall market fluctuates.

If regulatory decisions are mild

The market will be like a person who finally learns that the strange noises at night are not a monster but a cat. Fear disappears quickly. We may see a sharp rebound upward — especially in crypto and AI sectors.

If decisions are strict

It will be like taking a plate already cracked in several places and tapping it a bit harder. It won’t break, but the crunch will be loud. The market may correct again, but not in the style of 2020 — more like “unpleasant but survivable”.

💡 The most likely scenario — and what it means for an ordinary person

Put simply, the market right now looks more like an emotional teenager than a calm adult. It swings from one extreme to another, searches for direction, takes offense at every headline, and gets inspired just as unpredictably. But we believe this is not a crisis. It is a transitional phase.