Gold and Silver: Forecasts Raised, but Growth Potential Limited

✨ The precious metals market continues to remain in investors’ focus this year. Summer traditionally brings lower volatility, and precious metals are showing modest growth. Gold prices remain above $3,300 per ounce, silver is trying to hold above $38, and platinum is gradually losing ground after a recent resistance test.

Analysts at StoneX, led by Rona O’Connell, have revised their 2025 forecasts but note that growth potential is limited, and sharp movements are unlikely without external shocks.

Gold: Holding Positions with Limited Growth

According to O’Connell, gold prices have fluctuated only 8% over the past three months and 2% over the last week. In Q3, the analyst expects an average price around $3,320 per ounce, while by the end of the year it is expected to be around $3,000.

“The maximum intraday levels recorded in April around $3,500 are unlikely to be exceeded unless a ‘black swan’ event or a large-scale humanitarian crisis occurs,” explained O’Connell.

Factors Influencing the Gold Market

1. Federal Reserve Actions — expected rate cuts in September, plus two possible additional cuts by year-end, have limited impact on price dynamics.
2. Central Bank Demand — although purchase volumes have decreased, net purchases continue, signaling sustained interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.
3. Equity Markets — despite US economic growth, the market appears overheated, making gold an attractive hedging instrument.

Possible Scenarios

• In a moderate equity market decline, a short-term correction in gold prices is possible as investors liquidate hedge positions.
• Afterward, interest in gold is expected to resume as a risk-reducing asset.
• The main price range for the coming months is $3,200–3,600 per ounce.

Silver: Dynamics and Outlook

Silver shows higher volatility. O’Connell raised the 2025 average silver price forecast to $34.21 per ounce, 7% higher than the previous estimate. In Q3, the average price is expected around $37.30, and by year-end around $34.

• The current spot price of silver is $37.97 per ounce (+0.12% per day).
• The metal faces resistance at $38, limiting further growth.

Silver’s dual role as both an investment and industrial metal makes its dynamics more sensitive to changes in demand and economic activity.

Platinum: Decline and Long-Term Outlook

The platinum market is dominated by bearish sentiment. After the April resistance test just below $1,500, prices gradually fell to $1,333 (-0.22% per day).

Long-term forecasts remain moderately optimistic: the 2025 average platinum price is $1,160 per ounce, 15% higher than the initial StoneX estimate.

• Market pressure is due to weak industrial demand and inventory saturation.
• At the same time, platinum remains an attractive long-term investment.

Conclusions and Investor Recommendations

1. Gold — stable but growth limited; expected range $3,000–3,400; use as a risk hedge.
2. Silver — suitable for short-term speculation and long-term investment but highly volatile.
3. Platinum — currently declining, but long-term potential exceeds the initial estimate.

Key Factors to Watch:

• Monetary policy of the Fed and other major central banks
• Equity markets and US economic indicators
• Geopolitical and humanitarian events (“black swans”)
• Demand from central banks and institutional investors

Курсы на 20 августа 2025 (мировые цены):
Золото: 3332 $/унц
Серебро: 37,7 $/унц
Палладий: 1120 $/унц
Платина: 1323 $/унц

🏆 Overall, the precious metals market shows resilience, and the limited growth of gold and silver highlights the need for portfolio diversification and careful monitoring of external risks.