The bottom of Bitcoin may be around $60,000. This conclusion was made by Jurrien Timmer — Director of Global Macro Strategy at investment company Fidelity Investments.
The discussion was prompted by a chart he published, based on the so-called Power Law of Bitcoin price movement. This model views the long-term dynamics of the asset not as a random set of market cycles, but as a gradual movement within a mathematically defined growth channel.
What the Power Law chart shows
The chart displays the entire history of Bitcoin’s price since its inception in 2009. The black line shows the actual market price of the asset. Overlaid is the statistical channel of long-term growth.
The light blue area represents the long-term price corridor. Historically, the main phases of Bitcoin’s growth and correction occurred within this zone.
The lower boundary of the channel is marked by an orange line. This is the Power Law support line — a conditional level below which the price has rarely fallen in the long term.
The upper boundary of the channel is marked with a green line. It acts as a resistance zone where market peaks formed in past cycles.
Why the $60,000 level?
According to Timmer’s calculations, the lower boundary of the current long-term channel is around $60,000. He considers this level as a potential macroeconomic “bottom” of the current market cycle. At the same time, the analyst emphasizes that the market can temporarily dip below this level. Cryptocurrency volatility traditionally remains high, so short-term deviations are quite possible.
However, from the perspective of the long-term statistical model, the $60,000 level appears as a key equilibrium zone between supply and demand in the Bitcoin market.
Additional indicator — Bitcoin-to-gold ratio
In his assessment, Timmer does not rely solely on the Power Law. The analysis also includes the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio. This indicator is often used by macro analysts to assess the relative undervaluation or overheating of the digital asset. When Bitcoin significantly lags behind gold in performance, it may indicate an oversold condition.
According to the analyst, current metrics also point to the formation of a long-term support zone.
Historical logic of previous cycles
The history of the crypto market shows a certain pattern. During deep corrections, Bitcoin’s price repeatedly returned to the lower boundary of the long-term channel. This happened after the 2013 bubble, the 2018 market crash, and the 2022 bear cycle. Each time, the market touched the lower part of the channel for some time, after which a new growth phase began.
Therefore, proponents of the Power Law model believe that Bitcoin’s dynamics develop not chaotically, but within a long-term mathematical trajectory.
Forecast adjustment
Interestingly, at the end of 2025, Timmer estimated the potential bottom of the current cycle around $65,000. However, after updating the data and recalculating the model, his assessment shifted slightly downward. Now, in his opinion, the $60,000 level appears to be a more likely zone of long-term support.
Important to remember the risks
Despite the popularity of the Power Law model, it is not an exact forecasting tool. Bitcoin’s price is influenced by dozens of factors: central bank monetary policy, geopolitics, institutional demand, technology development, and regulatory changes.
Nevertheless, over the past fifteen years, this model has quite accurately described the long-term structure of Bitcoin’s movement. If this pattern continues, the level around $60,000 may become a fundamental support point from which the next major phase of cryptocurrency market growth will begin.
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